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Asian Megatrends by Rajiv Biswas

By Rajiv Biswas

Asian Megatrends assesses the foremost drivers impacting Asia over the subsequent 20 years. the increase of China is remodeling the Asia-Pacific, as China’s monetary and armed forces may more and more reverberates in the course of the area. India and Indonesia also are emerging Asian powers which are altering the form of the Asian monetary panorama. The fast development of rising Asian client markets is turning into an more and more vital progress engine for the realm economic system and for international multinationals. even if, Asia faces large monetary and social demanding situations over the long term, together with the quick development of Asian megacities and serious environmental difficulties as a result of weather switch, water crises and toxins. Geopolitical tensions have additionally been escalating within the Asia-Pacific because of territorial disputes within the South China Sea and the East China Sea, expanding the chance of a local hands race and army confrontation.

Asian Megatrends is a necessary learn for presidency officers and company executives wishing to appreciate the swiftly altering threat panorama in Asia.

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After 2030, Indonesia does start to experience more significant population ageing, with the old age ratio reaching 24 per cent by 2050. However this is still moderate compared to Northeast Asian countries. The relatively youthful demographic profile of Indonesia over the next three decades should give Indonesia a competitive advantage in trying to attract manufacturing investment into the country, although significant economic reforms in to improve the business climate are also needed over the medium-term.

With the Chinese economic growth rate gradually moderating, the number of new jobs that need to be created each year is also declining significantly, helping to avert the risks of rising unemployment and potential social unrest. While China’s population will be ageing significantly over the next three decades, the total size of the population is projected to gradually increase until 2030, and then start to decline at a The Impact of Ageing Demographics on Asia 29 moderate pace until 2035. Consequently the population in 2025 is expected to be approximately the same as in 2035, at 1,450 million people.

As in other countries with ageing demographics, such as many Western European countries and Japan, this implies a rising burden of health care and social services costs in future years as the share of the elderly population increases. However unlike advanced economies such as EU countries or Japan, Chinese per capita GDP levels are still considerably lower than OECD standards, indicating that a large share of the working age population will not have accumulated substantial private savings for their retirement, and pension entitlements will also be much lower.

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